An impact-based environmental risk assessment model toolbox for offshore produced water discharges.

We present a novel approach to environmental risk assessment of produced water discharges based on explicit impact and probability, using a combination of transport, fate and toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models within a super-individual framework, with a probabilistic element obtained from ensemble simulations. Our approach is motivated by a need for location and species specific tools which also accounts for the dynamic nature of exposure and uptake of produced water components in the sea. Our approach is based on the well-established fate model DREAM, and accounts for time-variable exposure, considers body burden and effects for specific species and stressors, and assesses the probability of impact. Using a produced water discharge in the Barents Sea, with early life stages of spawning haddock, we demonstrate that it is possible to conduct a model-based risk assessment that highlights the effect of natural variations in environmental conditions. The benefits, limitations and potential for further improvements are discussed.

Effects of chemical dispersants on feathers from Arctic seabirds.

Chemical dispersion is an oil spill response strategy where dispersants are sprayed onto the oil slick to enhance oil dispersion into the water. However, accidental application could expose seabirds to dispersants, thereby negatively affecting their plumage. To understand the possible impacts on seabirds, feathers from common eider (Somateria mollissima) and thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia) were exposed to different dosages of the dispersant Dasic Slickgone NS. For all exposure dosages the feathers increased in weight, and mostly for common eider. Analysing the feather microstructure, e.g., the Amalgamation Index, showed that larger damages were found on thick-billed murre than common eider. A no-sinking limit was established at 0.109 ml/m2. Relating this value to desktop simulations of potential sea-surface dosages in real-life situations, and to published accounts of response operations, showed that the limit is likely to be exceeded. Thus, our results show that chemical dispersants in realistic dosages could impact seabirds.

Impact of flow field resolution on produced water transport in Lagrangian and Eulerian models.

During offshore petroleum production, large volumes of produced water are continuously discharged. The environmental impact from such discharges is typically assessed with numerical models, which simulate the transport and dilution of the produced water plume in order to predict environmental concentrations of its chemical constituents. In this study we investigate the effects of model resolution (800 m and 4 km) on produced water dispersion. We also compare two different types of models, a Lagrangian particle model, and an Eulerian grid-based ocean model to assess the Eulerian consistency of the Lagrangian model. We consider a point source off the coast of mid-Norway, during two different seasons (winter and spring). In general, the two models are in reasonable agreement. We find a substantial difference in tracer distribution and concentrations between the two resolutions, and to a lesser extent between seasons; in particular, the 800 m model shows lower concentrations along the coast.

Modelling of oil thickness in the presence of an ice edge.

Oil slick thickness is a key parameter for the behaviour of oil spilled at sea. It influences evaporation and entrainment, viable response options, and the risk to marine life at the surface. Determining this value is therefore of high relevance in oil spill modelling. In open water, oil can spread as thin films due to gravity alone, and may be further dispersed by horizontal diffusion and differential advection. In the presence of ice, however, a thin oil slick may become concentrated to higher thickness, if compressed against the ice edge. In the present study, we develop a simple model for the thickness of oil forced against a barrier by a current. We compare our theory to flume experiments, and obtain reasonable agreement. We describe an implementation in a Lagrangian oil spill model, and present some examples. We discuss the operational applicability, and suggest further research needs.

Modelling biodegradation of crude oil components at low temperatures.

For oil spilled at sea, the main weathering processes are evaporation, emulsification, photo-oxidation, dispersion and biodegradation. Of these, only biodegradation may completely remove hydrocarbons from the environment in the long term, as the other processes only serve to transform and dilute the oil components. As petroleum development is moving north, the probability of Arctic oil spills increases. Hence, it is imperative to develop methods for comprehensive risk assessment of oil spills in cold and ice-covered waters. Accurate biodegradation rates are an essential part of this, as they are required to predict the long-term effects of marine oil spills. In this paper, we present experimentally determined biodegradation rates for the component groups which are used to represent oil in the OSCAR oil spill model. The experiments have been carried out at seawater temperatures of -2∘C, 0∘C, 5∘C, and 13∘C. We show that for the lighter and more soluble oil components, the changes in degradation rates between 0∘C and 13∘C are well captured by a constant Q10 scaling law. At lower temperatures, and for heavier and less soluble components, the rates are not well described by a constant Q10, probably indicating that oil properties become important for the biodegradation rate.

On the use of random walk schemes in oil spill modelling.

In oil spill models, vertical mixing due to turbulence is commonly modelled by random walk. If the eddy diffusivity varies with depth, failing to take the derivative of the diffusivity into account in the random walk scheme will lead to incorrect results. Depending on the diffusivity profile, the result may be either over- or underprediction of the amount of surfaced oil. The importance of using consistent random walk schemes has been known for decades in, e.g., the plankton modelling community. However, it appears not to be common knowledge in the oil spill community, with inconsistent random walk schemes appearing even in recent publications. We demonstrate and quantify the error due to inconsistent random walk, using a simplified oil spill model, and two different diffusivity profiles. In the two cases considered, a commonly used inconsistent scheme predicts respectively 54% and 202% the amount of surface oil, compared to a consistent scheme.

Improving oil spill trajectory modelling in the Arctic.

As petroleum development and other activities move further north, the potential for oil spills in ice-covered waters is of great concern. As a tool for contingency planning and forecasting during response, oil spill models play a key role. With the development of new, high-resolution coupled ice-ocean models, better predictions of sea ice are becoming available. We have updated the OSCAR oil spill model to use sea-ice velocity and coverage fields from coupled ice-ocean models to improve simulation of oil fate and transport in ice-covered waters. We describe the implementation of oil transport in the presence of ice, and demonstrate the improvement by considering three case studies. We find clear improvement when taking ice velocity from a coupled ice-ocean model into account, compared to a heuristic model that uses surface current and wind velocity. The difference is found to be especially important in a response situation near the marginal ice zone.

Spreading of waxy oils on calm water.

The objective of this paper is to provide a simple extension of the much-used gravity spreading model for oil on calm water to account for the spreading behavior of waxy crude oils in cold waters - including the observed retardation and eventual termination of spreading at certain oil film thicknesses. This peculiar behavior is not predicted by traditional spreading models for oil on calm water (i.e. viscous-gravity spreading models), but may occur due to non-Newtonian oil properties caused by precipitation of wax at low temperatures. To clarify the spreading behavior of such oils, SINTEF has conducted a series of laboratory experiments with a range of waxy oil mixtures. The present paper contains analyses of data from these experiments, including favorable comparisons with calculations by a proposed improved surface spreading model.

Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills.

We investigated the effects of a warmer climate, and seasonal trends, on the fate of oil spilled in the Arctic. Three well blowout scenarios, two shipping accidents and a pipeline rupture were considered. We used ensembles of numerical simulations, using the OSCAR oil spill model, with environmental data for the periods 2009-2012 and 2050-2053 (representing a warmer future) as inputs to the model. Future atmospheric forcing was based on the IPCC's A1B scenario, with the ocean data generated by the hydrodynamic model SINMOD. We found differences in "typical" outcome of a spill in a warmer future compared to the present, mainly due to a longer season of open water. We have demonstrated that ice cover is extremely important for predicting the fate of an Arctic oil spill, and find that oil spills in a warming climate will in some cases result in greater areal coverage and shoreline exposure.

Experimental and numerical studies of the scattering of light from a two-dimensional randomly rough interface in the presence of total internal reflection: optical Yoneda peaks.

The scattering of polarized light from a dielectric film sandwiched between two different semi-infinite dielectric media is studied experimentally and theoretically. The illuminated interface is planar, while the back interface is a two-dimensional randomly rough interface. We consider here only the case in which the medium of incidence is optically more dense than the substrate, in which case effects due to the presence of a critical angle for total internal reflection occur. A reduced Rayleigh equation for the scattering amplitudes is solved by a rigorous, purely numerical, nonperturbative approach. The solutions are used to calculate the reflectivity of the structure and the mean differential reflection coefficient. Optical analogues of Yoneda peaks are present in the results obtained. The computational results are compared with experimental data for the in-plane mean differential reflection coefficient, and good agreement between theory and experiment is found.

Coherent effects in the scattering of light from two-dimensional rough metal surfaces.

We investigate numerically multiple light-scattering phenomena for two-dimensional randomly rough metallic surfaces, where surface plasmon polaritons (SPPs) mediate several surface scattering effects. The scattering problem is solved by numerical solution of the reduced Rayleigh equation for reflection. The multiple scattering phenomena of enhanced backscattering and enhanced forward scattering are observed in the same system, and their presence is due to the excitation of SPPs. The numerical results discussed are qualitatively different from previous results for one-dimensionally rough surfaces, as one-dimensional surfaces have a limited influence on the polarization of light.